A Russian missile strike on a town in central Ukraine on Thursday killed at least 23 people, including three children. Two weeks earlier, rockets crashed into buildings near Odessa, killing 21. And for weeks in the Kiev suburb of Bucha, civilians bore the brunt of the Russian onslaught — killed on their bicycles or walking down the street, or executed with their hands tied.
Indiscriminate Russian attacks on civilian areas have become a hallmark of its invasion, and this week an international conference in The Hague sought to coordinate an approach to the massive allegations of war crimes in Ukraine.
But investigators face a huge challenge, with some 20,000 war crimes investigations, multiple countries and international agencies working, and a high burden of proof to achieve a conviction. Further complicating matters, the investigations work while the war is still raging. The Kremlin has denied the accusations against its forces, and Russia’s Defense Ministry has called graphic evidence of the atrocities “fake”.
Prosecutors seek to prevent a situation where national and international prosecutors trip over each other in search of evidence and witnesses. On Thursday, Karim Khan, the International Criminal Court’s prosecutor, stressed the need to coordinate investigations and avoid a “scramble” of many countries “running to crime scenes.”
This week in The Hague, representatives of 45 nations, including the United States and European Union countries, heard testimony about the atrocities and pledged about $20 million to help the ICC, Ukraine’s attorney general and the United Nations effort.
Experts say the International Criminal Court, created in 1998 to deal with cases of mass atrocities, could be an important avenue for holding Russia accountable, although there are many obstacles to that goal. Neither Russia nor Ukraine is among the court’s 123 member states, but Ukraine has granted the court jurisdiction over crimes committed on its territory.
Dutch Foreign Minister Wopke Hoekstra said at a press conference on Thursday that the Netherlands is considering the creation of an ad hoc international war crimes tribunal in Ukraine.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky addressed the conference by video as rescuers dug through the rubble of Thursday’s missile strike on Vinnytsia, a city far removed from the fighting on the eastern front. “This is an act of Russian terror,” he said.
On Wednesday, US Secretary of State Anthony J. Blinken said Russian authorities are“deported” between 900,000 and 1.6 million Ukrainian citizens, including 260,000 children, from their homes on Russian territory, often to isolated regions in the Far East. The illegal transfer of protected persons, he said, was a violation of the Geneva Convention and a war crime.
Russia has acknowledged that 1.5 million Ukrainians are currently in Russia, but has assured that they have been evacuated for their own safety.
The history of war crimes cases shows that it will be difficult for prosecutors to bring cases about Russia’s war in Ukraine.
Three of the most famous prosecutions – Slobodan Milosevic, Charles Taylor and Saddam Hussein – were brought against leaders who were not in power; no sitting president has ever been extradited to an international court.
Russian President Vladimir V. Putin has significant support at home and has developed strong ties with the leaders of other major nations, including those of China, Turkey and Iran.
Proving war crimes and especially who ordered an action is also very difficult. In Mr. Putin’s case, prosecutors will have to prove that he gave specific orders that led to specific atrocities, that he knew about the crimes or that he did nothing to prevent them.
Prosecutors will also have to prove that Russian commanders deliberately attacked civilian structures or hit them in attacks that did not distinguish between civilians and military targets. Obtaining such evidence or testimony may prove impossible in the near future, at least while the fighting rages on.
Marlize Simmons contributed reporting from Paris.