Nearly 13 million bitcoins have not been moved in over a year, which is an all-time high

main sockets

• All-time high of 12.7 million bitcoins hasn’t moved in over a year
• This translates to two-thirds of the circulating supply
• Only 7% of bitcoins have been moved in the last month
• History shows that holders of long-term stocks tend to rise as prices fall, which may seem counterintuitive
• The real story is a bit more subtle, as lower trade volumes in bear markets provide an underlying variable affecting the data.

One of the interesting things about the blockchain is the general availability of all kinds of statistics about the network.

A lot is being made of a stable bitcoin supply cap, with the final supply of 21 million bitcoins set to hit 2140. Bulls use this as evidence of why the asset is programmed to expand in price, since its scarcity will inevitably press the asset higher.

By looking at the series here at https://coinjournal.net/We noticed an oddity in this data.

Long term holders continue to grow

Despite the cryptocurrency bloodbath in 2022, long-term holders have continued to accumulate. Of the 19.27 million bitcoins currently in circulation, 12.77 million bitcoins haven’t moved in over a year – an all-time high.

It’s a very important number. In the following chart, I’ve plotted these bitcoins against two other categories: first, bitcoins that moved in the last month (traders), and second, bitcoins that haven’t moved in more than a month but have moved over the past year (average holders).

Currently, we have 66% of our bitcoins unchanged in over a year – again, an all-time high. The previous high was in September 2020 when the mark was 63%. Before that, the previous high was in April 2016 at 60%.

Another 27% of bitcoins have not moved in the last month, while the remaining 7% can be seen as bitcoins in circulation, moving around the blockchain in the past month.

Why do equity holders grow in the long run?

The question that arises is why? Why do we see long-term equity holders grow exponentially when the market is taking a beating?

Well, I decided to plot the percentage of holders of long-term contracts against the price of bitcoin. The result is very interesting – it certainly seems that there is at least a moderate inverse relationship between price and long-term owners. That is, when the price goes down, the long-runners go up. Nations.

But really, it makes sense. As the price drops, volumes and market interest tend to dry up. With that comes less trading, specifically fewer equity holders under the one-month threshold.

While the long-term narrative of bitcoin absorbing increasing amounts of supply is often painted in a bullish light, I’m not sure that tells the whole story when looking at this historical pattern.

Certainly, it is a positive thing that the number of bitcoins that haven’t moved in more than one year is on the rise, as it shows that these long-term holders tend not to give up during pullbacks.

But a healthy trading market and high liquidity are associated with a bull market, which is part of the reason we see an inverse relationship here. Look no further than turnover in 2022, which is down 46%. Central exchanges Compared to the previous year – this trillions of dollars of activity is no longer there.

Volumes have mushroomed in the cryptocurrency space. This has dampened activity and it is not surprising that a portion of the bitcoins that have been traded has declined recently. The analysis of long-term holders is a more nuanced matter than the crude assumption that “more bitcoins are in the works.” Long-term portfolios are bullish so the price will go up. This is simply not what we have seen historically. said Max Copeland, Director of CoinJournal.

I will continue to monitor all on-chain activity, as the market is definitely showing more life in these early stages of 2023, with softer inflation data giving impetus to the market that we can turn higher interest rates around sooner than previously expected. So it will be interesting to follow the dynamics of the series.

But the next time someone announces that there is clearly less bitcoin circulating in the markets, perhaps remember that the situation is a little more complicated than that.

If you use our data, we’d appreciate linking you back to it https://coinjournal.net. Endorsing our work with a link helps us continue to provide you with data analytics research.