Generative AI could affect 300 million jobs, Goldman Sachs predicts

Recent advances in artificial intelligence may have some people worried about job security—and with good reason. A Goldman Sachs report predicts that up to 300 million jobs could be affected by generative AI.

“If generative AI fulfills its promised capabilities, the labor market could face significant disruption,” the investment banker said in a research note (PDF) on Sunday. About two-thirds of U.S. jobs are exposed to automation from AI, Goldman said, adding that of those affected positions, up to 50 percent of their workload could be replaced.

“While the impact of AI on the labor market is likely to be significant, most jobs and industries are only partially exposed to automation and are therefore more likely to be supplemented rather than replaced by AI,” the report said. About 7% of US jobs could be replaced by AI, Goldman estimates, with 63% augmented by AI and 30% unaffected by it.

Technology that can create new material on its own represents “a major advance with potentially large macroeconomic effects,” Goldman said. Widespread adoption of AI could increase the total value of goods and services created globally by 7% over the next 10 years, the report said.

Generative AI gained public attention in November launching OpenAI’s ChatGPT, a chatbot built on a powerful AI engine that can write software, hold conversations and compose poetry. Microsoft uses the technology foundation of ChatGPT, GPT-4to increase search results with Bingan offer tips for writing emails and help with building presentations.

Since then, there has been an influx of big tech companies looking to capitalize on this breakthrough. Microsoft announced an expanded multibillion-dollar partnership with OpenAI to bring ChatGPT technology to its Bing search. Google, the creator of the world’s most popular search engine, responded by unveiling its own A ChatGPT rival called Bard.

Citing a study that found 60% of the workforce is in occupations that didn’t exist in 1940, Goldman predicted that a quarter of all tasks performed in the US and Europe could be automated by AI. In the US, office and administrative support jobs are at the highest risk of job displacement (46%), followed by legal positions (44%) and architecture and engineering jobs (37%).

Jobs with the least exposure to AI include cleaning and maintenance, installation and repair, and construction work, Goldman found.

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